For the European authoritiesbut also Chinese and to a lesser extent American, the transition to electric car is necessary to protect the environment from both atmospheric pollutants (particles, nitrogen oxides, etc.) and to reduce that greenhouse gas emissions (mainly CO2) that contribute to this the global warming. As a reminder, climate experts have all agreed for some time that we should Border that Heat climate at +1.5°C to the’avoid size disasters such as a sudden rise in sea level, but also periods of drought or severe weather.
Against this background, Europe (like China) has decided: we must switch to the electric car, the only solution to reduce our footprint quickly and efficiently. All right, except thatNGO Influence Mapa think tank specializing in the links between business and finance and the climate crisis points out that this transition is electric car will be clear insufficient to have a positive impact on the climate. Why ?
To get to it ConclusionInfluenceMap a Cross that Data from global car production of the specialized company IHS Markit (S&P Global) with a to learn of 2021 published by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and who dealt with it Scenarios for achieving carbon neutrality until 2050.
In his projectionsI’OUCH calculated that for the goal of neutrality carbon is reached, it was necessary that the sales from electric cars (or zero emissions). 57.5% in 2030 (i.e. 20% of the total fleet) and 86% in 2050. However, in 2021, electric car sales accounted for only 5.9% of sales (2.4% for hybrid vehicles).
Based on the scenarios, InfluenceMap then analyzed data on car production and its prospects. And the observation is bitter: in 2029As it appears 68% vehicles are sold still thermal (including hybrids). The share of electric would rise 32% and that of hydrogen vehicles at … 0.1%.
Basically only identified by the 12 major global manufacturers You are here and Mercedes would in line with the goals. Other car brands or companies would lag behind: InfluenceMap calculated an electric car share of 46% for VW, 45% for BMW, 22% for Nissan, 22% for Nissan and 14% for Toyota. Stellantis, which announced 100% electric range in 2030, would be at 40%, Ford at 36%, Renault at 31%, GM at 28% or even Hyundai at 27%. Of course, these results can be explained by the fact that not only Europe, China or North America have cars. That other parts of the world cheer them too and obviously they haven’t no plan to stop the thermals…
InfluenceMap also notes that theinfatuation for the SUV will only gain weight in the coming years (share of 47% in 2029 compared to 39% today), while their energy consumption is obviously higher, which won’t help move things in the right direction.
The car as sole responsibility?
Confirm that the transition to electric car will not solve not the problem of the global warmingit’s a bit like break open a door. The industry at all transportation/road traffic accounts for 20% of greenhouse gas emissions. That means it stays 80% of the other production sources need to be flushed out and treated. In this context, domestic heating or certain parts of the industry should offer good opportunities for improvement, but so far no one had the courage to tackle it properly. One wonders why?
The fact is that the car is probably that most visible part and the huge CO2 iceberg. It is therefore also the easiest to capture (tax) and reconcile, since it surrounds us more than any other object or sector. What InfluenceMap is also likely forgetting is that the Use of the electric car has every chance to be severely slowed down in the coming years.
As a matter of fact, Car manufacturers themselves are very skeptical today on the speed of the transition to electric cars, which is largely optimistic today. Because that defect of materials and minerals looming on the horizon will not allow it not to build Number of electric vehicles expected nor to lower their price to make them competitive with a thermal model. As the other said wryly, we live in wonderful times. Elon Musk, the head of Tesla, is often whimsical. But he is certainly right when he calls for the switch to electric cars will last almost 40 years!
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