Manufacturing PMI is recovering slightly and services are stable. In the United States, leading economic indicators continue to deteriorate while durable goods orders are rising.
In the United States, published statistics remain mixed. Activity data remains resilient, durable goods orders rose 1%m/m in October and new home sales rose 7.5%m/m in October, beating expectations. On the downside, leading economic indicators continued to deteriorate: the manufacturing purchasing managers’ index disappointed, falling to 47.6 from 50.4, and its services counterpart fell to 46.1 from 47.8 in November, both in line with the contraction range (<50). In the euro zone, the purchasing managers' index for manufacturing recovered slightly in November to 47.3 from 46.4 and services held steady at 48.6, but remains weak. Finally, in China, the PBoC continues its monetary easing by cutting the reserve requirement ratio for banks by 25 basis points.
French asset manager Amundi has just reclassified almost all of its funds, ie 100 funds for 45 billion euros, in the SFDR Article 9 category, which makes sustainable development the objective of the fund, in the SFDR Article 8 category, which includes the environmental and/or promotes social characteristics of the funds. A key difference linked to the intention that Amundi justifies with the uncertainties related to the European regulations that define what is “sustainable”.
The downward trend in government bond yields continued and yield curves continued to flatten. In the US, Fed minutes confirmed (1) that the terminal rate will be higher, while (2) the rate of increase should slow. Over the week, 10-year and 2-year rates fell 15 basis points and 8 basis points, respectively. In Europe, several governors made ‘hawkish’ speeches, leading to a rise in short rates and a fall in long rates (Bund 2Y +3bps/10Y -4bps). On the credit side, spreads tightened in Europe (IG -6bps/HY -27bps) and US (IG -4bps/HY -14bps).
After a positive week, the indices started negative this Monday in the wake of the Asian markets. Plenty of macro numbers are released for the US: GDP, CPI, ISM and employment stats, as well as Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales, while in the eurozone CPI and unemployment come under scrutiny. Indices are testing key resistance and could correct.
After a week without much momentum, anti-lockdown protests in China on Monday are fueling risk aversion. The euro remains a prisoner of the €/$1.0295-1.0480 range at €/$1.0405 until mid-December central bank meetings. The CHF remains firm at €/CHF 0.9825, sup. 0.9643 and res. 0.9893. The £ (£/$1.2078) recovery seems to be losing steam res.1.2294, sup. 1.1710. An ounce of gold is $1756, sup. 1729 and res. 1785.
Despite the decline in leading economic indicators, equities rose (USA: +1.5%; Europe: +1.7%) and credit spreads narrowed. Both are reacting positively to the decline in 10-year rates (USD: -15bp; EUR: -4bp). The dollar suffers (dollar index: -0.9%) while gold (-0.3%) does not benefit. To monitor this week: House Prices, Household Confidence, ISM in Manufacturing and Employment Report in the United States; EC confidence indices (economy, industry, services), consumer confidence, unemployment rate and consumer price index in the euro area; PMI for manufacturing and services in China.
To be monitored this week: Seco third quarter GDP, OFS 2022 wage developments, KOF November economic barometer, OFS October retail sales, OFS November inflation and November indices purchasing manager PMI. The following companies will publish numbers: Aryzta, Epic and Dottikon ES.
DISNEY (Core Holding): Bob Iger, the previous CEO from 2005 to 2020, takes over leadership of the company, replacing Bob Chapek, who has been at odds with members of the executive team. Making streaming profitable ($4 billion loss in 2022) will be one of Iger’s priorities.
NESTING (Core Holding) will hold its Capital Markets Day this week. In addition to details on its product/category/market innovation strategy, questions focus on the group’s pricing dynamics and the risks of down trading. With falling raw material costs, we can expect a smaller price effect in 2023 and a stronger focus on volumes and an improvement in the mix (premiumisation) in order to create value.
FORECLOSURE (Satellite) will release its T3-AF2023 this Wednesday 30th November. We remain cautious on this release due to the risk of slower revenue growth for the remainder of the fiscal year.
SONOVA (Core Holding): According to the trade press, Sonova has stopped marketing its products at Costco in the USA. The contract loss was expected due to the downward adjustment of the targets for 2023 when the half-year results were published in mid-November.
chart of the day
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